As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of people unemployed has skyrocketed to more than 40 million individuals, with April 2020 having the greatest net change in unemployment in the past decade. The exact number of newly unemployed individuals that are now eligible for Medicaid is unknown. Some are estimating a significant increase in people eligible for Medicaid, especially in Medicaid expansion states.
- Study conducted: Between April 13, 2020, and May 8, 2020,a study by Harvard was conducted about analysis of strategies taken by states during COVID-19 and policies enacted before the pandemic that may facilitate Medicaid enrollment for individuals who are newly eligible due to Covid-19. Policies enacted by states prior to and not in response to the pandemic were included if they supported the enrollment of individuals during COVID-19.
- Facilitation for first-timers: In some cases, states amplified and made this information, and other COVID-19 specific resources more accessible for enrollees. Since a number of those applying for Medicaid during the pandemic are first-time applicants navigating the process, researchers identified which states had these strategies in place to facilitate and streamline enrollment.
- Results concluded: Results show that Medicaid enrollment increased as the US’s COVID-19 pandemic and the economic shutdown began in March 2020, with approximately 5 million more people covered nationally by September 2020. This increase occurred in both expansion and non-expansion states, as found in a previous shorter-term analysis, although evidence is collected suggesting that growth was larger in expansion states.
- The significant change in various states: It is found that enrollment growth was greater in states with smaller changes in unemployment in 2020. This may indicate that Medicaid growth is associated with factors other than job loss, including reduced work hours making more people eligible, a greater focus on health care during the pandemic, and the maintenance of effort requirement passed by Congress in March 2020, which offered states more funding in exchange for a requirement that they do not disenroll anyone from Medicaid during the public health emergency.
- States with largest changes: The largest changes were in Idaho (which expanded starting January 2020) and Kentucky. The regression line for Medicaid growth had a modest negative slope with respect to unemployment increases, in both expansion and non-expansion states.